The national subsidy for the hottest new energy ve

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The national subsidy for new energy vehicles will be adjusted: the market structure has changed

"the industrialization of electric vehicles must ultimately be completed by relying on the market." On December 9, chenqingtai, former deputy director of the development research center of the State Council, said at the "Sanya · International Forum on finance and economics"

chenqingtai said that at this time, the new energy automobile industry cannot do without policy support, but what is more needed is market incentives, coercion and screening. Various situations show that the driving force of development has reached a period of transformation from policy driven to market and policy driven

since last year, China's electric vehicles have entered the growth period from the introduction period, marked by the fact that new energy vehicles have exceeded the production and sales of vehicles by 1.5%. The core line in the growth period is to improve the technical level, improve the industrial chain, reduce production costs and establish independent brands

in chenqingtai's view, the government's policy mix must generate long-term expectations and be incorporated into the long-term strategies of relevant industries and enterprises; Haier Group, another well-known brand in the household appliance industry, has its own material R & D institution Haier New Material R & D Co., Ltd. to promote the policy, and tap and release the market potential; The government's policies should play a role in both incentive and coercion, and should not distort the market and weaken competition; The government policy does not interfere with the technical route. The implementation of the policy is not to rely on the government, but the timely decline of the role of the government

the decline rate has increased

2016 is a sign year that new energy vehicles have been widely recognized. Previously, the government issued various forms of incentive policies to make up for the lack of product technology maturity and the high initial cost, and quickly started the market

"the new policy is still being countersigned." The 21st Century Business Herald learned from various sources that a new policy on subsidies for new energy vehicles is imminent

the idea of the current outflow subsidy adjustment is to increase the technical threshold requirements for passenger cars, comprehensively adjust passenger cars, clarify the technical requirements for special vehicles, and refine the subsidy requirements for fuel cell vehicles. Moreover, the new national subsidy policy will have a significant decline compared with the previous version, and the decline of some models will reach 60%

this will lead to changes in the market structure of domestic new energy vehicles. Among them, pure electric logistics vehicles will receive greater support. Due to the serious fraud of electric buses, this proportion is decreasing, and the demand for ternary batteries will increase, becoming the two major directions for the development of the new energy vehicle market

on December 2, the Ministry of industry and information technology released the fourth batch of catalogue of recommended models for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles, and a total of 678 products were selected. In this batch of promotion catalogue, passenger cars still account for 55%. Among the logistics models, 178 transport vehicles were selected, accounting for 26%

"although domestic buses and logistics vehicles only account for about 10% of the total consumption of the market, the advantages of the renewable plastic granulator in terms of mileage make it possible for it to continue to develop by more than 90%, which is far greater than that of passenger cars. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the market demand in combination with policy guidance." On December 11, fangjianhua, President of GuoXuan high tech, said in an interview with 21st Century Business Herald that the development space of logistics vehicles is very large

in addition, the Ministry of industry and information technology indicated at the meeting on further improving the safety supervision of the promotion and application of new energy vehicles that, from January 1, 2017, passenger cars using ternary batteries that have newly applied for the catalogue of recommended models for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles should also submit a third-party inspection report

this is also interpreted as a major benefit for the development of ternary lithium batteries, that is, on the premise of passing the thermal runaway test and thermal runaway expansion test, ternary lithium battery passenger cars can apply for the recommended directory, marking the "suspension of the application of ternary batteries on passenger cars", which is expected to be lifted from January 1, 2017

the battery is in urgent need of cost reduction

"the new energy vehicle industry actually has a difficult time to go. The next year and the following year are also difficult. The future depends on everyone to reduce the cost. Paper can be seen everywhere in our daily life." on December 7, Zeng Yuqun, founder of Ningde times, said at the annual Lithium Battery Conference of high tech that the spring of power batteries and new energy vehicles is far from coming, and cost reduction has become the biggest pressure in the industry

driven by the demand for electric vehicles, in 2016, the total output value of lithium batteries reached 112billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 31.8%. The output value of power batteries increased by 53.9% compared with 2015. Affected by the adjustment of subsidy policies, the output scale was lower than expected at the beginning of the year, and the growth rate of energy storage output value was 7.7%, but the volume was small, and it was still in the gestation period

meanwhile, driven by policies and capital, the power battery capacity reached 60gwh in 2016. Mainstream power battery plants are currently in the state of production expansion, but some enterprises' production expansion plans are stranded due to the impact of subsidy adjustment, postponement of ternary battery entry into the market, fraud compensation inventory, power battery specification adjustment, etc; In 2017, there will be overcapacity, which may lead to a price war and increased pressure on cost reduction

the above shows that ternary lithium battery is becoming a general trend in the market trend of power battery. The output of ternary power batteries accounted for 34%, with a year-on-year increase of 11 percentage points, mainly driven by the growth of passenger electric vehicles; Sanyuan bus will be lifted to further promote the development of Sanyuan battery; The national plan to achieve 300wh/kg energy density by 2020 must be realized through new material system and new battery technology

on November 22, the Ministry of industry and information technology published the standard conditions for automotive power battery industry (2017) (hereinafter referred to as the standard conditions) for comments, which stipulated that "the annual output capacity of lithium-ion power battery single enterprises does not have to be amplified by amplifiers to less than 8billion watt hours", which increased the requirements for the annual capacity of lithium battery single enterprises by 39 times, At present, only BYD and Ningde times are domestic battery manufacturers that meet the above requirements. It is expected that the production capacity of GuoXuan high tech will reach 80% of the requirements next year

for power battery enterprises, the cost should be reduced to the greatest extent, the monopoly of the industrial chain should be broken, the ecological chain of battery echelon recycling should be built, large-scale production and manufacturing should be realized, and large-scale mass production should be carried out on the basis of battery standardization

Zeng Yuqun believes that there are five major demand markets in the field of new energy vehicles in the future. It is expected that from next year, the price of lithium batteries will decrease more, and the micro electric vehicles that originally used lead-acid batteries will be replaced by lithium batteries. However, the market threshold of commercial vehicles and logistics vehicles is low, and the time for model verification is short. More enterprises will enter the new energy vehicle industry from the logistics vehicle field

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